Economic Highlights

New Delhi, 1 January 2024

AI To Hit Global Economy

IMPACT POLLS, TOPPLE GOVTS

By Shivaji Sarkar 

The global economy is at stake as both the World Bank and the European Union fear artificial intelligence (AI) manipulating 70 countries, including the world’s largest democracies -- India, the US and Russia -- going to polls in 2024.Others to join the polls include Taiwan, Brazil, Indonesia, Pakistan. And all will be experiencing their first AI election, says British journal The Economist adding “Disinformation campaigns may be supercharged in 2024”. 

The Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) estimates that AI is poised to contribute $15.7 trillion to the global economy. However, the World Bank underscores the challenges posed by AI, labelling 2023 as the year of inequality and 2024 as the year of artificial intelligence. This, in turn, intensifies battles against conflict, violence, food security, and climate change, making economic stability elusive, particularly for the world’s poorest nations, including India.Jobs except for gig, temporary-online work, are not growing. 

The worry among nations stems from the potential for AI to manipulate information on a larger scale than the traditional social media or manual public relations methods. The upcoming elections, particularly Taiwan’s in January 2024, carry global significance. The contest between the Democratic Progressive Party and the Kuomintang, coupled with Beijing’s alleged involvement through cyber warfare, adds a geopolitical dimension to the concerns. 

Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, interim Dean at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy, predicts that the 2024 elections will be an ‘AI election’, comparable to the impact of social media in 2016 and 2020 changing politics. Luminate’s survey reveals widespread European concerns about AI and deepfake technology, with over 70% of respondents in the UK and Germany expressing concern about its potential threat to elections and democracy. 

India grapples with AI controversies involving sophisticated IT cells within numerous political parties, coupled with ongoing debates surrounding electronic voting machines (EVMs). The Opposition’s vocal scrutiny and the suspension of 146 opposition MPs step up the atmosphere leading up to the polls. Concurrently, the nation witnesses a substantial 30.8 percent surge in AI investment, reaching a notable $881 million, according to Nasscom. 

More people think social media companies hurt democracy instead of strengthening it. Referencing historical examples, Professor Paul M Vaaler of the University of Minnesota highlights the influence of multinational corporations (MNCs) in electoral politics, emphasising a potential repeat scenario with AI. He says that between 1987 and 2000 MNCs invested $199 billion in 18 developing countries and replaced governments – right with left and left with right. 

Microsoft’s chief economist, Michael Schwarz, warns of bad actors meddling in elections through AI-driven spams, while also acknowledging the lucrative potential of AI development. Interestingly, AI is likely to generate $30 billion for Microsoft over an investment of $1 billion in 2019. 

Despite previous concerns surrounding the 2020 US elections and ongoing AI battles in Europe, the lack of AI regulations and widespread distrust in political establishments may keep the concerns about technology misuse hidden. It still remains a volatile issue between Democrat President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. The G7 and G-20, viewed as hotbeds of global MNCs influencing policies, contribute to growing inequality among countries, leading to social and political unrest globally. 

India, facing a Hobson’s choice regarding AI involvement, grapples with economic challenges, including high debt levels, growing gig jobs, and concerns about the quality of employment. The GDP is growing for sure as high debt figures also add to it. The low value gig jobs being created syncs with the World Bank’s concern of loss in quality employment. 

India debt has touched Rs 169 lakh crore, foreign debt exceeds $629 billion, though the Finance Ministry has allayed IMF fears of debt reaching 100 percent of GDP in 2028-28. The level at present is 81 percent and the Ministry says it is reducing. India’s public and private capital expenditures are shrinking. Private expenses declined by 55 percent and public by 68 percent, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). 

Fears rise about the use and misuse of AI ahead of next year’s elections around the world that will see billions of people come out to vote.Pime Minister NarendraModi has cautioned against AI misuse in elections in India, echoing fears of deepfake technology after a video of him dancing surfaced. He suspected it was a video generated using AI that appeared real. Some fact-checkers revealed that the garba, a traditional Gujarati dance performance, was done by a Modi look alike and was not an AI-generated clip. 

During Telangana elections, the BRS complained to the Election Commissionthat the Congress used AI to discredit its party President KT Rama Rao. BJP has been using AI campaigns since 2020 with its Member of Parliament Manoj Tiwari’s AI generated videos. The party said that it had partnered with a private company to generate deepfakes that reached 15 million people in 5800 WhatsApp groups. Now other parties are also using it to reach a larger audience.Companies around Delhi have gone into producing many AI-generated campaign materials for the LokSabhaelections from village to national level. Clips can be made for Rs 5000 to higher values. 

An Ernst & Young survey finds Indian corporate CEOs yearning for AI investment but are cautious yet to commit but admit that this is India’s moment to shape the future of the AI-led Industrial Revolution. 

The disruptive effects of AI may also influence wages, income distribution and economic inequality. Rising demand for high-skilled workers capable of using AI could push their wages up, while many others may face a wage squeeze or unemployment. But AI is also about high investments. It can bring in transformative changes in healthcare, education, banking, industry, agriculture, manufacturing, industry, marketing and a host of other applications.  The growth co-efficient suggests that on an average a unit increase in AI intensity can return $ 67.25 billion of 2.5 percent of GDP to the Indian economy.    

As AI’s disruptive effects on wages, income distribution and economic inequality become apparent, balancing technological advancement with cautious regulation becomes imperative. Despite fears of remote political intervention, the inexorable march of technological progress mandates adherence to western practices to ensure responsible use in polling and governance processes.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Round The States

New Delhi, 30 December 2023

Bihar Political Stir Up

NITISH TAKES CENTRE STAGE

By Insaf 

The political churnings in Bihar have led to a change of guard in the ruling Janata Dal (United). Chief Minister Nitish Kumar took over as party President on Friday, replacing Rajiv Ranjan Singh, popularly known as Lalan Singh, who has been his comrade in arms for past five decades. The timing of the party’s National Council meeting in Delhi appears to be a well-thought strategy or perhaps a compulsion given that the big battle of 2024 is just months away and Nitish must have centre stage. Besides, the rumour mill has it that Nitish is upset with Lalan Singh’s close proximity to ally RJD and that Singh had a meeting with deputy CM Tejaswi Yadav along with 14 MLAs in a bid to overthrow him! Though Singh has denied such shenanigans, he did eventually have to resign. The party too rubbishes the rumours saying the change is primarily because Nitish is its ‘most prominent face’ and he should take charge of the organisation at this crucial time to ensure “unilateral command to the party rank and file”.

Guess, not just within JD(U) but also with INDIA bloc, which has been ignoring the feelers of making Nitish its Convenor. Rumours of Nitish joining the NDA are also doing the rounds, which the party has denied vociferously. All eyes will be now on him and how he plays out the changeover. Whatever the plans, and whether it will work or not is anyone’s guess.    

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Respect Kannada

The language issue raises its ugly head again in Karnataka. Respect Kannada if you want to live and do business in Bengaluru, warns Karnataka Rakshana Vedike (KRV). On Wednesday last, the self-proclaimed caretaker of Kannada language and key issues chose to take law into its hands, with its members going on a rampage and vandalising commercial establishments, tearing down non-Kannada signages. They demanded the Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike (BBMP) law that signages should have 60% Kannada, must be respected and now. While the police detained hundreds of its activists and arrested 28, including KRV President Narayana Gowda, the government has asked it to refrain till the deadline of February 28, as set for all establishments to have Kannada signboards prominently. Undermining of the official language is unacceptable to the KRV, which says “If you ignore Kannada or put Kannada letters in small, we will not let you operate here.” Bengaluru, a Cosmopolitan capital, did you say? 

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Religion Or Politics?

Religion or politics is a controversy brewing around the consecration of the Ram temple in Ayodhya, UP on January 22. Other than the temple’s grandness, the town is being given a makeover ahead of Prime Minister Modi’s visit on Saturday to inaugurate an international airport and redeveloped Ayodhya railway station. On Thursday last, preparations were on a war footing to give it a divine look-- orange and yellow strings of marigolds around ornamental lamp posts, structures, etc. The PMO said Modi will inaugurate four redeveloped, widened, and beautified roads, including Ram Path. Large posters hailing the town as ‘Maryada, Dharm and Sanskriti,’ have come up. But is it so? Controversy over the invites, who will or won’t attend is playing out. For example, CPM has snubbed saying: ‘Religion is a personal choice of every individual.... the inauguration ceremony has been converted into a state-sponsored event with PM, UP CM and others holding Constitutional positions.’ Some have termed it as a ‘show off’. BJP responds: ‘Insulting Hindus, Hindutva and Hindu values seems to have become part of the DNA of these socially thorn people!” Perhaps, it’s best to leave it as Hey Ram!

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CAA In West Bengal

‘No one can stop implementation of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA)’, is Union Home Minister Amit Shah assertion and aimed particularly at West Bengal. Accusing Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee of misleading people, Shah reminded her that ‘it is the law of the land’ (passed by Parliament in 2019) and his party is committed to implement it. Clearly, the poll bugle has been sounded, as sharp focus was put on CAA, during a closed-door meeting of the party’s social media and IT wing members in Kolkata on Tuesday last, with few video clips being shared later. Shah aims now to win over 35 of the 42 Lok Sabha, (in 2019 it won 18) with the promise to ‘end of infiltration, cow smuggling and providing citizenship to religiously persecuted people.’ Didi has been vociferously opposing the CAA, but for how long and how is the big question. The BJP sees CAA as a major factor for its rise in this State and it requires no guessing to what length it could go to quash opposition. Fireworks are to be expected.   

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Nagpur Rally & Yatra

Congress has kicked off its 2024 poll campaign, and strategically in RSS’s backyard, Nagpur city. Thursday last, observing its 139th foundation day with a mega rally, 'Hain Taiyyar Hum' (we are ready), it asserted ‘INDIA alliance will win’ in ensuing polls. Both Rahul Gandhi and chief Mallikarjun Kharge drove home the point the battle with BJP is to save democracy: “If BJP and RSS came to power again, democracy will be finished. There are two ideologies in Nagpur, one is progressive which belongs to Ambedkar, and other is of RSS which is destroying the country.” Predictably, Prime Minister Modi was targeted as ‘being against social justice and equality’, and it’s Congress which will seek ‘justice for people,’ through Rahul’s 'Bharat Nyay Yatra'. It will begin on 14 January from Manipur to Mumbai, passing through 14 states and 85 districts in 67 days. His ‘Bharat jodo yatra’ had raised issues of “economic disparities, polarisation and dictatorship”, this one shall focus on “social, economic and political justice for the people.” Will the BNY rally support for the party as did the BJY in Karnataka and Himachal? Well begin is half done goes the saying and the Nagpur rally should keep the grand old party’s hopes alive.

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Covid Cases

Is there a need to panic or not? With Delhi joining other States in reporting its first case of COVID-19 sub-variant JN.1, the citizens are at a loss of how to react as the Union Health Ministry has urged people not to panic, saying it’s a mild version of Omicron and ‘mild infection.’ While the national capital has 35-odd cases since Wednesday last, 40 more cases of the variant were recorded across the country taking the tally of cases to 109—36 cases were detected from Gujarat, 34 from Karnataka, 14 from Goa, nine from Maharashtra, six from Kerala, four each from Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu, and two from Telangana. Most of the patients, it was said were currently in home isolation, however, there were 3 new fatalities (two from Karnataka and one from Gujarat) within a span of 24 hours. While it may be prudent for the Ministry not to frighten people, it’s equally important it keeps a close tab on the cases and have an action plan in case its understanding goes awry. As said, it’s better to be safe then sorry. ---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Round The World

New Delhi, 29 December 2023

India & The World

REFLECTING ON 2023

By Prof. (Dr.) D.K. Giri

(Secretary General, Assn for Democratic Socialism) 

Another year is passing. We await the New Year with hope as well as anxiety, as the world is going through turbulent times. Philosophical speaking, it is the order of the life, full of ups and downs, happiness and sorrow, peace and war. The last cycle of international life (peace and war) is under interrogation as Prime Minister Narendra Modi profoundly said while mildly chiding the Russian President Vladimir Putin last year during Shanghai Cooperation Summit at Samarkand, that “it is no time for war”. The United Nations was created after the Second World War to prevent further wars. 

However, the world community has failed in preventing full-scale wars in addition to several armed skirmishes and clashes. The horrifying war in Ukraine continues unabated causing horrendous loss of lives, properties and resources. The war that started last year lingers on defying diplomacy and the political acuity of world leaders. Apparently, the Ukrainian war at present is stalemated as Russia seems to tire out and Ukraine running out of support from the West. Until there is some kind of truce, the war can intensify at any stage as the resources or resolve on either side are reinforced. 

If Ukrainian war was not enough for the world community to address the disruptions in economy and politics, another violent war erupted in the Middle-East between Israel and Hamas. This was quite unexpected. Israel and Palestine were living in peace and some kind of co-existence since the conflict began over seven decades ago. However, terrorism as a method of conflict resolution is still lurking around. This is completely illegitimate and unacceptable. India, as a victim of cross-border terrorism has been raising the issue of eliminating the scourge of terrorism from world politics. But, because of dubious policies of quite a few countries terrorism persists. 

Israel became a victim of cruel and sadistic attacks by Palestinian terrorist groups namely Hamas on 7 October this year suffering hundreds of deaths and hostages. Shocked and surprised, Israel vowed to retaliate with all its might with two war objectives – to eliminate the military capacity of Hamas so that they are incapable of repeating such attacks on Israel, second, to free all the hostages taken by Hamas. Consequently, from October, Israel and Hamas are engaged in a deadly combat with heavy casualties. According to the reports available, over 20 thousand civilians in Palestine have been killed and over hundred soldiers from Israeli side. Israel is facing assaults from Hezbollahs in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen. According to the Israel military, the war is likely to continue for months. 

Again, the world leaders have miserably failed in bringing about a lasting ceasefire, let alone the end of the war. In dealing with the current war, the commentators are going back to the origin of conflict and are caught in victim-aggressor-victim cycle. In this war, both Israel and Hamas have become aggressors as well as victims. If the focus would have been on 7^th October and the consequent reactions, it could be easier to resolve. While calling out Israel on the massive retaliation causing heavy casualties amounting to genocide, the commentators go back in time instead of stressing on the terrorist attack by Hamas which gave the ground for Israel for ‘self-defence’. 

Recalling the brighter side of India and its interactions with the world, we had an amazingly successful G-20 Summit in Delhi. It came up roses inasmuch as there was a consensus statement by the world leaders despite a divided opinion on Ukrainian war. However, it happened, Indian leadership was credited with successful negotiation across the countries. The entire canvass of India’s politics and economy in all sectors – local governments, social sector, art and heritage, small-scale innovations were all exposed with the world community in the run-up to the Summit spanning over the year. 

This year, India became the fifth largest economy in the world. That is some achievement to shout about as India’s growth has been constantly low in the 70s and 80s at 3 per cent which was queerly called ‘Hindu rate of growth’ by an eminent economist, Prof. Raj Krishna. The economic planners resolved to expedite the economic growth which is promised to be over 5 trillion by the end of this decade to be the third largest in the world. However, the prosperity of the country is measured by per capita GDP not the country’s GDP alone. In that sense, disappointingly, India has the lowest per capital GDP among all G-20 members. 

At the same time, India became the most populous country in the world surpassing China. This is again a distinction India could claim provided it uses the demographic dividend intelligently and strategically. Prime Minister Modi, in an article, articulated the strength of India in terms of four Ds – democracy, demography, development and diversity. So, India’s population, mainly its large segment of youth population, could be harnessed in India and abroad. India’s foreign policy could strategise on population redistribution, facilitating the migration of skilled manpower to various countries. The European countries, namely Italy, Portugal and Germany are open to receiving India’s work force. 

There were two unsavoury incidents involving India and Canada and India and the USA. In both the cases, two Sikhs of Indian origin having accepted the citizenship of Canada and USA, were plotting violent attacks on Indian agencies. One of them, Hardeep Singh Nijjar with dual citizenship of India and Canada, was murdered in Canada. The Canadian Prime Minister accused Indian agencies being behind his death. An avoidable diplomatic row erupted. Similarly, the US citizen Gurpatwant Pannu, who called for boycott and violence against Air India, was targeted causing the US to point a finger at Indian intelligence agencies. The sharing of evidence etc. is on between relevant authorities in India and the US. 

On the side of caution, it is to be noted that once again the US Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) has asked for 17 countries, including India, to be put as ‘countries of particular concern’. This is about lack of religious freedom in those countries. In case of India, it is the minorities which are being harassed and hounded by the religious vigilantes from the majority religion. This is certainly a matter of concern for a country like India, which has been famous across the world for religious tolerance and accommodation. Remember, Prime Minister Modi spoke in Israel with a great sense of pride that no Jew suffered from anti-Semitism in India. India is one of the few countries in the world with a secular Constitution. 

Likewise, India ranked low in the ranking of three democracy watchdogs – Freedom House, V-Dem and Economist Intelligence Unit. One may quarrel with their process of measurement of democracies, but should we be completely dismissive of such concerns! When India is aspiring, may be rightly so, to be a Vishwa Guru because of its unique spirituality and culture, any blemish on India’s politics and society should be addressed. The World Happiness Report 2023 shows India on 126^th position out of 137 countries despite it being the fifth largest economy. Is this not something to address in 2024 and beyond?---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

REWIND

New Delhi, 28 December 2023

Home Front Cries For Attention

By Inder Jit

(Released on 27 December 1983) 

Thoughts in New Delhi as elsewhere are increasingly turning to the New Year, now round the corner. What will 1984 bring? Will Orwell be proved prophetic and his nightmare come true? Will the new year be better than 1983? Expectedly, not a few have drawn up annual balance sheets for the state of the nation. Many among New Delhi’s ruling elite are busy back-slapping each other. They see the year that has rolled by as a year of triumph and glory. Everything appears great. “Look at NAM. And, look at CHOGM”, they say. “We have proved we are as good as the best in the West. Both the summits were undoubtedly a great success. Both have proved once again that we Indians can do it -- as in the case of the splendid Asiad. India’s reputation has shot up in the world and Mrs Gandhi is today acknowledged as one of the world’s most outstanding personalities. Nothing proves this more than the praise showered on her by the President of the UN General Assembly, Mr Jorge Illueca, on the concluding day of the 38^th session. 

But there the kudos must end. Success in holding summits -- in New Delhi and in New York -- is no doubt something of which any country can be proud. But it does not add up to very much in the total national canvas when all is said and done. New Delhi today is undoubtedly beautiful and resplendent as never before. It compares with the best world capitals. It brought Mrs Gandhi many compliments from visiting heads of Government both during NAM and more recently during CHOGM. However, it would be folly to get carried away by polite compliments from visiting guests. New Delhi, as every visiting VIP knows, is not India. What is more, it is not even Delhi. The world is impressed not by outward show but basic strength. In fact, not a few diplomats are intrigued by our astonishing capacity to be influenced by mere floss. They are right. We seem to be living from one summit to another. It's time our leaders took a holiday from foreign affairs and devoted thought to the home front which cries out for attention. 

There is much that Mrs Gandhi can do in the months available to her between now and the poll. Image building and public relations are undoubtedly important and have yielded Mrs Gandhi fantastic dividends. Ultimately, however, people are concerned with their day to day lives, which have not received adequate priority either from Mrs Gandhi or her planners. To mention a few things. We have spent thousands of crores of rupees in importing foodgrains and building up buffer stocks. Yet we could have saved ourselves all this money if only the Government and, more particularly, the Prime Minister had devoted adequate attention to irrigation, as spotlighted by the Public Accounts Committee during the Chairmanship of Mr Satish Agarwal, formerly a Janata Minister. India, according to the 1982-83 PAC report, had planned an additional irrigation potential of 30 million hectares for major and medium projects. But irrigation created after years planning totals only about 20 million hectares. Had the full potential been created, we could have produced 25 million tonnes of grains additionally and been in a better position to hold prices. 

Not only that. Equally scandalous is the lackadaisical implementation of eight major irrigation projects such as the Rajasthan Canal, Nagarjunasagar and Kosi-Gandak. All these projects continue to lag way behind their targets for the past 20 years or so, resulting in an astronomical cost run, apart from the loss caused on account of delay in reaping the benefits. The Rajasthan Canal was originally to cost Rs 55 crores. It is now estimated to cost Rs 100 crores. Had the project been completed speedily and on time, it could have yielded anywhere from 2.5 million to 3 million tonnes annually! Not many today remember the wise advice tendered to the Government of India by Mr Robert McNamara when he visited this country in November 1968 as the President of the World Bank. He was firmly of the opinion that India should give top priority to the Canal and complete it speedily. “I would do this if I were you”, he said in so many words, and added: “It will transform not only the face of Rajasthan but of India.” Alas, his advice was not heeded. 

Time and again, Mrs Gandhi has claimed that the common man today is doing much better. True, he has now the Maruti, priced at Rs 47,500, dedicated to him! The Government also claims that 57 million people have been raised above the poverty line in the past three years. (The number is stated to have been brought down from 339 million in 1980 to 282 million at the end of 1982. Person’s earnings Rs 65 per month or more are said to be above the poverty line.) Is this really so? Claim is strongly contested not only by the Opposition leaders but also by Dr Malcolm Adiseshiah, a well-known economist and a nominated member of the Rajya Sabha. Dr Adiseshiah holds the view that the Government figures are based on the erroneous assumption that real incomes have increased uniformly in 1980-81 and 1981-82 in all expenditure classes, including the poor. Of interest in the context of the common man is the fact that the per capita availability of foodgrains has fallen from 175 kg per annum in 1964 and again in 1978 to 155 kg in 1982-83. 

That the poor majority continues to be subjected to deprivation is also borne out by the price trend. The wholesale price index was 185 in March 1977 when the Janata Government came into office. It went up to 212 by July 1979 when the Morarji Desai Government fell -- an average increase of 1 pt per month. It rose thereafter from 212 to 225 under Mr Charan Singh -- an average increase of 2 pts per month from July to December 1979. After almost four years of rule by Mrs Gandhi, the index now stands at about 320 -- a rise of 95 pts over 48 months or an average increase of 2 pts per month. There has been a steady rise in both wholesale and consumer prices in the first five months of 1983-84. The average works out to 6.9 per cent for the wholesale price index. Dr Adiseshiah estimates that the wholesale prices will rise by around 7 to 8 per cent and consumer prices by 10 to 11 per cent during 1983-84. What, however, is most disturbing is the sharp rise in the prices of essential commodities -- a rise of 13 per cent in wholesale prices of primary food articles alone! 

Little has been done to ensure adequate return from the public sector, which adds up to a staggering investment of some Rs 30,000 crores. Mrs Gandhi has been issuing directives again and again. Most of these have got headlines on the front pages of newspapers. These may please Mrs Gandhi and her penchant for public relations. But they have so far not yielded the long-promised results. Regrettably, the public sector continues to be treated as a milch cow. No one, not even the Prime Minister, regards the investment as a national trust. No one insists on a minimum return. A commercial return of 20 per cent should net the country Rs 6,000 crores per annum which would in one stroke obviate the need for additional taxation and deficit financing. (Why commercial return? Many public sector undertakings are today seeking deposits at 15 per cent.) The total investment should yield a return of Rs 4,000 crores at 15 per cent and a little less at 12 per cent, offered by the Post Office. 

Few have given any thought to the increasing tendency among Government leaders to distribute patronage and help friends (and financiers) through exemptions from customs and excise duties -- something that has prompted the demand for a Committee on Taxation Expenditure as in the US. (“We have a Committee on papers laid on the table of the House,” says Mr Satish Agarwal. “Why can't we have a Committee to go into tax exemptions by executive orders? Some 300 to 400 notifications are issued annually. These add up to a “relief of some Rs 2,500 crores.”) A case in point is the latest exemption of customs and excise duties for big cars. The exemption was intimated to the Lok Sabha on Wednesday by the Minister of State for Finance, Mr Pattabhi Rama Rao. Mr Agarwal sought information on two points: the extent of revenue loss and whether blanket exemption had been given for all fuel cars exceeding 1000 ccs. Mr Rama Rao replied that he would send the details to the member -- and left. The exemptions are estimated to benefit the big car manufactures by some Rs 400 crores! 

Not a little thought requires to be devoted to the mounting problem of debt repayment. Plans have been drawn up for pushing up exports to Rs 30,121 crores by 1990-91 as against imports totalling Rs 30,010, leaving a favourable balance of Rs 111 crores. (Imports during 1983- 84 are expected to total Rs 15,000 and exports Rs 10,467 crores leaving an adverse balance of Rs 4,933 crores.) But experience does not encourage such optimism. In fact, if the current propensity (and recklessness) is any indication, we should be lucky if the present adverse balance does not grow. A leading MP said: “You should not be surprised if we start importing even sugar of which we have a glut.” The need for tightening imports and plugging loopholes has become all the greater following Washington’s decision to refuse to agree to a level of $12 billion for IDA-7 (the seventh replenishment of the International Development Association.) President Reagan’s decision to stick to $9 billion will mean less for India, now that China has become a member. India has been a major IDA beneficiary so far. 

All in all, the year that has rolled by has been rather barren in terms of achievements. (Yes, we had a record production of foodgrains. But the credit must go essentially to the weather gods. Thirtyfive years after freedom, our agriculture and budget continue to be a gamble in monsoons!) The problems we inherited in 1983 are still with us and, if anything, have become worse as in the case of Punjab and Assam. Regional tensions have grown and so also confrontation between the States and the Centre. Law and order has worsened and more and more people in rural areas are being forced to fend for themselves. Corruption continues to grow by leaps and bounds and the country today is witnessing the biggest ever loot in its history, notwithstanding Mrs Gandhi’s repeated promises to stamp it out. Parliament, administration and other institutions have suffered further erosion. Truth is at a greater discount than ever before. Summits and conferences have their use in today’s increasingly interdependent world. But we need to come down to terra firma, pull the economy out of the rut and tackle the country’s many problems clamouring for solution. The world respects only those who are strong. -- INFA.

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)